South China Sea Oil and Sas Exaggerated Chinese Hardline Gamble

Japanese Foreign Scholar magazine's website on February 4, the original question: Beijing's South China Sea gamble is, then the South China Sea on contains enough world consumption of oil. Beijing's gamble may be the wrong note.

ensure that the potential of deep-sea oil and gas resources, is the main reason for Beijing double bets in the South China Sea. Many people will be called the South China Sea the next Persian Gulf, this analogy helps to understand why the South China Sea as one of the core interests. As China is increasingly emerging as industrial powers, the importance of energy to economic development is increasingly prominent. Despite the ongoing development of solar energy, hydropower and other forms of energy, but that the conventional fossil fuels may still dominant. Therefore, Beijing is helping to create a sound energy supply mix channels to reduce the risk of reliance on any single source of energy. From Beijing's perspective, the South China Sea as China to ensure a prosperous and more secure energy.

Beijing plans may be defective. To differ materially from the results of the various predictions of the energy reserves in the South China Sea. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) calculation, the South China Sea oil reserves of about 280 billion barrels, the Chinese Government's forecast results are close to 2000 billion barrels. Analysts generally believe that China's argument a bit too optimistic.

China has also ignored the prospects for the development of energy technologies and the broader energy market. Large-scale use of alternative energy sources will change the strategic value of the energy of the South China Sea. If alternative energy production to continue its rapid development, experts believe that 10 years they can be achieved commercially available, and comparable in price with oil.

is more important is, not all oil is created equal, not the least cost. Some analysts said the deep-sea oil price is four times the conventional oil of the Middle East and other regions. Therefore, the South China Sea oil development costs may be much higher than the greater energy of bio-fuels, even coal, natural gas and other pollution, so that the strategic significance of the deep-sea oil weakened.

energy trends continue to do the same go on, especially if the South China Sea proved to be "wishy-washy", Beijing's efforts will probably be futile. Result, China's hard-line on the South China Sea will not only damage the image of its peaceful rise will force Vietnam, the Philippines and other countries called on the U.S. to enhance military existence in the region.

For the United States, in the near future ease the tensions of the most important initiatives in the region than perhaps issued by the South China Sea resources are not as valuable as Beijing that information. At the same time, the United States should encourage the countries in Southeast Asia through APEC and other organizations of proven energy reserves in the South China Sea, and the elimination of the related uncertainties. Will or will realize that they can not afford to bet on the South China Sea.